Black Friday and Prime Days: why the discount peak costs SMBs more than it brings in

Reading time: 6 minutes · For owners of SMBs in Ausserschwyz, the Linthgebiet and around Lake Zurich who sell with autumn promotions, Black Friday or on Amazon

Black Friday is at the end of November, and in many businesses the promotion is already planned: 20 per cent off everything, an ad in the local paper, a newsletter on Thursday evening. What hardly anyone plans are the weeks before and after. That is exactly where the money is lost, and it applies to the online seller on Amazon just as much as to the specialist shop in the March.

The trigger is Amazon’s Prime Days on 6 and 7 October, including in Germany, where many Swiss brands sell through Amazon.de. I built a small calculation model for this and explained it on video:

The gap before the peak and the slump after it

As soon as a big promotion is announced, some customers stop buying. They know it will soon be cheaper, put the product in the basket and wait. In the days before the peak, that can cost half of normal sales. On the sale day itself you then sell three times a normal day, and everyone is pleased with the spike.

Then comes the slump. Whoever wanted the product has bought it. Whoever missed the promotion is reluctant to pay full price again. In my model, using made-up numbers for a seller with EUR 10,000 in daily sales, 39 normal days bring in EUR 390,000. With the waiting phase, two sale days and the slump afterwards, it is EUR 334,000, so EUR 56,000 less than if the promotion had never happened.

The promotion lasts two days. The waiting before and the slump after last three weeks.

Why the same applies in Switzerland

This isn’t theory from the Amazon universe. The Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute recalculated Black Friday 2025 for Swiss retail: around CHF 196 million in additional sales against CHF 291 million lost to discounts. On balance, the day cost retailers about CHF 100 million. And 72 per cent of the products bought would have been bought anyway, just at a different time and at full price.

That is exactly the effect from the model: the peak pulls sales forward and pushes them back, at the reduced price. For a furniture shop, a bike dealer or an electrical retailer between Lachen and Rapperswil, this isn’t a big-corporation problem. It is a question of margin in the most important quarter.

What to do now

1. Calculate the whole period, not the sale day

Don’t compare Black Friday sales with a normal Friday. Compare six weeks with six weeks: the time before the promotion, the promotion, the time after. The same goes for the ad budget. If you raise your bids in Google Ads during sale week, you often just pay more for customers who would have come anyway.

2. Earlier and more moderate instead of once and deep

The alternative in the model: reduce part of the range slightly weeks ahead, instead of betting everything on one day. The waiting phase gets smaller because there is less reason to wait, and the slump afterwards is flatter. With the same made-up numbers, that brings in EUR 17,800 more in sales over the whole period, even though the sale day itself is weaker. For local businesses, this often means: reach out to regular customers earlier, with a benefit for those who don’t wait until Black Friday.

3. Show discounts correctly

Reducing early has a catch. On Amazon, the lowest price of the last 30 days becomes the new benchmark, and a later promotion has to undercut it. In Germany, the Price Indication Ordinance requires the same. In Switzerland, a discount may only be compared with a price you actually charged before, and only for a limited time, as SECO explains in its questions and answers on price indication. So plan your prices across the whole season, not promotion by promotion.

4. Don’t train your customers to wait

If you give 30 per cent off every November, you teach your customers not to buy in September. This is especially costly for considered purchases with a long decision time, as I described in the post on marketing for furniture stores. A fair price all year round is also a form of positioning.

In most SMBs nobody does this calculation, because everyone does marketing on the side. That is exactly what marketing without a marketing department is for: one point of contact who works through the promotions calendar with you before the ad is booked.

Where the limits are

Not every promotion is a mistake. If you need to clear stock, have seasonal goods or want to win new customers who later come back at full price, a peak can work well. And the numbers in the model are made up. How strong the waiting phase and the slump are for you, only your own sales data from recent years can show. A business in Pfäffikon with regular customers calculates differently from a pure online shop. But both should calculate.

Frequently asked questions

Is Black Friday worth it for an SMB?

Only if you calculate the whole period. According to the Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute, Black Friday 2025 cost Swiss retail around CHF 100 million on balance, because the loss from discounts was bigger than the additional sales. For clearing stock or winning new customers, it can still be worth it.

What is the waiting phase before a big promotion?

The time between the announcement and the sale day, when some customers deliberately don’t buy because they are waiting for the lower price. The better known the promotion, the bigger this effect.

Can I advertise discounts at any time in Switzerland?

Yes, but the comparison price must actually have been charged before, and the comparison is limited in time. The details are in the Price Indication Ordinance and in SECO’s FAQ.

Should I reduce prices earlier instead?

Often yes, moderately and for part of the range. Reducing earlier shrinks the waiting phase and the slump afterwards. But bear in mind that the earlier price can become the new comparison price, especially on Amazon.